By Prof. Mary Ezeajughu
Contributor: Dr. Chika Abazu
I approach this question with a data-driven lens, drawing on key macroeconomic indicators, policy impacts, and structural trends from May 2023 to late 2025. The framing of Nigeria’s situation as either economic revival or economic detention flows from the bold reforms introduced by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, including fuel subsidy removal, exchange rate unification, and renewed efforts to address corruption, infrastructure decay, and institutional weaknesses.
These reforms were, in many respects, unavoidable. Nigeria inherited deep structural distortions from the Buhari era, where subsidies drained public finances, the Naira was artificially supported through multiple exchange-rate windows, and growth stagnated under the weight of oil dependency and governance inefficiencies.
My conclusion is clear: Nigeria is on a path toward economic revival, but it is a slow, uneven, and painful revival. The early shock was severe: inflation spiked, the currency depreciated rapidly, and living standards deteriorated. But by late 2025, indicators point toward stabilization, improved fiscal health, rising investor confidence, and renewed infrastructure momentum. This is not blind optimism. It reflects a transition from a subsidy-dependent system riddled with inefficiency to one more aligned with market realities and private-sector-driven growth.
However, revival is neither automatic nor universal. Poverty, inequality, insecurity, and underemployment remain major headwinds. Nigeria is moving in the right direction, but progress must be sustained, inclusive, and humane.
1. Context: Why the Reforms Were Necessary
Nigeria entered 2023 still Africa’s largest economy, but facing major vulnerabilities:
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Fuel subsidies consumed trillions of Naira annually, encouraged smuggling, and diverted funds from health, education, infrastructure, and security.
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Multiple exchange rates distorted the forex market, encouraged arbitrage, and discouraged investment.
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Inflation had already climbed above 22% before reforms, driven by insecurity, weak power supply, and high logistics costs.
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Corruption, institutional weakness, insecurity, and industrial stagnation compounded economic hardship and fueled mass emigration (popularly known as the “Japa” trend).
The elimination of subsidies and exchange-rate unification, alongside monetary tightening, were adopted as corrective measures long recommended by global financial institutions and many economists. The immediate effects were painful but largely predictable.
2. Evidence of Revival: What the Numbers Suggest
By late 2025, several key indicators began trending positive:
GDP and Sector Performance
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GDP growth strengthened compared to 2023 levels.
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Non-oil sectors expanded, reducing dependence on oil earnings.
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Oil production improved from post-pandemic lows.
Inflation: Still High, But Cooling
Inflation surged after subsidy removal but began easing in 2025, assisted by tighter monetary policy. Food inflation remains elevated, which is a reminder that insecurity and weak logistics still hurt households.
Currency and Reserves
Unifying the exchange rate led to a major Naira depreciation initially, but the market later stabilized and reserves improved, helping restore investor confidence.
Fiscal Position
Subsidy savings widened fiscal space, reduced deficits, and increased the ability to invest in infrastructure and social spending.
Investments
Foreign and domestic investment interest has improved, particularly in infrastructure, ports, logistics, and energy.
3. Infrastructure as a Growth Engine
Infrastructure investment has become a cornerstone of reform. Major highway projects, port upgrades, hydropower expansion, energy-sector reforms, and airport development are gradually reducing logistics costs and stimulating economic activity. These projects generate jobs and improve productivity, which are key ingredients for sustained growth.
4. Why Many Nigerians Still Don’t Feel the Revival
Economic revival does not yet translate into widespread relief.
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Poverty rates increased during the reform shock.
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Many jobs remain informal and poorly paid.
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Social protection programs reached only a fraction of those in need.
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Food inflation remains stubborn due to insecurity in farming areas.
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Wage growth lags behind price growth.
For millions, recovery still feels distant.
5. So, Revival or Detention?
Nigeria is not in economic detention, which would imply irreversible decline. Instead, it is undergoing painful economic recalibration. The reforms have begun stabilizing macroeconomic fundamentals. Growth is recovering, inflation is moderating, fiscal balance is improving, and infrastructure momentum is expanding.
However, revival will only be sustained if the government:
✔ strengthens social safety nets
✔ enhances food security through improved rural security
✔ supports SMEs and manufacturing
✔ maintains policy consistency
✔ deepens anti-corruption efforts
✔ ensures inclusive growth
Countries like Indonesia and India experienced similar reform-induced shocks, followed by sustained growth when reforms were maintained and social protections strengthened.
Conclusion
Nigeria’s economy is in recovery, but not yet healed. The worst of the shock appears to be over, but the benefits must reach ordinary citizens. With transparency, discipline, and inclusive policies, Nigeria can sustain growth and realistically target higher expansion rates by 2027.
Revival is underway, but it must be managed with compassion, competence, and a commitment to social justice.
