Date: December 2025

Over the years, the Indigenous People of the Niger Delta (IPND) has remained consistent in its constructive engagement on policies affecting peace and development in the region. This commitment prompted an official response from the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (Ref: 59778/V/T3/176, 25 September 2018), which issued a directive to the Presidential Amnesty Programme to give due attention to IPND’s submission titled “Request for Urgent Intervention” and to take necessary action within its mandate.

That correspondence, preserved in the public record, reflects IPND’s sustained effort to ensure that the Presidential Amnesty Programme (PAP) evolves into a more transparent and result-oriented mechanism for sustainable regional growth.

Fifteen years after the establishment of the PAP, the fundamental question remains: what truly transforms lives in the Niger Delta?
IPND maintains that the most enduring policies are those that build people, not dependency — programs that strengthen intellect, creativity, and enterprise rather than perpetuate cycles of crisis and appeasement.

To achieve this, interventions must go beyond short-term relief and commit to sustained human capital development that produces self-reliant citizens capable of shaping their own destinies.

In its most recent review, IPND noted encouraging developments within the Presidential Amnesty Programme (PAP) under the coordination of Dr. Dennis Brutu Otuaro.
The Programme has demonstrated a more deliberate focus on structured education, advanced vocational training, and international postgraduate scholarships.

During a courtesy visit abroad, IPND’s President-General, Pumokumo B. E. Tiemo, met and interacted with some PAP scholars and delegates. The engagement offered firsthand insight into the calibre of beneficiaries and the professionalism shaping their training and academic pursuits.

IPND commends Dr. Otuaro’s leadership and his conscious emphasis on capacity building as the foundation for peace and progress. By investing in intellect and skill, rather than short-term appeasement, the PAP is helping cultivate a new generation of Niger Deltans equipped to lead the region into a future of innovation, productivity, and pride.

While acknowledging the progress achieved, IPND calls for expanded collaboration between PAP, state governments, and private-sector institutions.
Such partnerships can ensure that skills acquired through the amnesty framework align with real market demands and industrial growth.

Joint initiatives already piloted in Bayelsa, Rivers, and Delta States — where PAP beneficiaries trained in renewable energy, maritime logistics, and small business management — have begun yielding positive employment and entrepreneurship outcomes. These successes highlight the value of multi-sector engagement as a catalyst for inclusive development.

IPND encourages Dr. Otuaro and his team to sustain and deepen these collaborations, ensuring that the energy of the Niger Delta youth is transformed into sustainable economic and social progress.

IPND also commends the dedication and conduct of the PAP scholars and delegates it has interacted with both within and outside Nigeria.
As representatives of the region, beneficiaries are urged to continue serving as positive ambassadors of the Niger Delta’s identity, culture, and values.

They carry not only the hopes of their communities but the story of a people renowned for resilience, hospitality, and creativity. IPND encourages them to embody the dignity, discipline, and integrity that reflect the true heritage of the Niger Delta — and to use their education and skills to uplift others when they return home.

The IPND urges all Niger Delta leaders to adopt a legacy-driven governance philosophy that prizes transparency, continuity, and accountability.
Policies should be designed to outlive tenures and leave behind institutions, not mere headlines.

Where genuine progress is visible, it must be acknowledged and where gaps remain, constructive dialogue must continue.
IPND reaffirms its readiness to support every leader and agency committed to sustainable, people-centred development in the Niger Delta.

Signed,
Pumokumo B. E. Tiemo
President-General
Indigenous People of the Niger Delta (IPND)

By Prof. Mary Ezeajughu
Contributor: Dr. Chika Abazu

I approach this question with a data-driven lens, drawing on key macroeconomic indicators, policy impacts, and structural trends from May 2023 to late 2025. The framing of Nigeria’s situation as either economic revival or economic detention flows from the bold reforms introduced by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, including fuel subsidy removal, exchange rate unification, and renewed efforts to address corruption, infrastructure decay, and institutional weaknesses.

These reforms were, in many respects, unavoidable. Nigeria inherited deep structural distortions from the Buhari era, where subsidies drained public finances, the Naira was artificially supported through multiple exchange-rate windows, and growth stagnated under the weight of oil dependency and governance inefficiencies.

My conclusion is clear: Nigeria is on a path toward economic revival, but it is a slow, uneven, and painful revival. The early shock was severe: inflation spiked, the currency depreciated rapidly, and living standards deteriorated. But by late 2025, indicators point toward stabilization, improved fiscal health, rising investor confidence, and renewed infrastructure momentum. This is not blind optimism. It reflects a transition from a subsidy-dependent system riddled with inefficiency to one more aligned with market realities and private-sector-driven growth.

However, revival is neither automatic nor universal. Poverty, inequality, insecurity, and underemployment remain major headwinds. Nigeria is moving in the right direction, but progress must be sustained, inclusive, and humane.

1. Context: Why the Reforms Were Necessary

Nigeria entered 2023 still Africa’s largest economy, but facing major vulnerabilities:

• Fuel subsidies consumed trillions of Naira annually, encouraged smuggling, and diverted funds from health, education, infrastructure, and security.

• Multiple exchange rates distorted the forex market, encouraged arbitrage, and discouraged investment.

• Inflation had already climbed above 22% before reforms, driven by insecurity, weak power supply, and high logistics costs.

• Corruption, institutional weakness, insecurity, and industrial stagnation compounded economic hardship and fueled mass emigration (popularly known as the “Japa” trend).

The elimination of subsidies and exchange-rate unification, alongside monetary tightening, were adopted as corrective measures long recommended by global financial institutions and many economists. The immediate effects were painful but largely predictable.

2. Evidence of Revival: What the Numbers Suggest

By late 2025, several key indicators began trending positive:

GDP and Sector Performance

• GDP growth strengthened compared to 2023 levels.

• Non-oil sectors expanded, reducing dependence on oil earnings.

• Oil production improved from post-pandemic lows.

Inflation: Still High, But Cooling

Inflation surged after subsidy removal but began easing in 2025, assisted by tighter monetary policy. Food inflation remains elevated, which is a reminder that insecurity and weak logistics still hurt households.

Currency and Reserves

Unifying the exchange rate led to a major Naira depreciation initially, but the market later stabilized and reserves improved, helping restore investor confidence.

Fiscal Position

Subsidy savings widened fiscal space, reduced deficits, and increased the ability to invest in infrastructure and social spending.

Investments

Foreign and domestic investment interest has improved, particularly in infrastructure, ports, logistics, and energy.

3. Infrastructure as a Growth Engine

Infrastructure investment has become a cornerstone of reform. Major highway projects, port upgrades, hydropower expansion, energy-sector reforms, and airport development are gradually reducing logistics costs and stimulating economic activity. These projects generate jobs and improve productivity, which are key ingredients for sustained growth.

4. Why Many Nigerians Still Don’t Feel the Revival

Economic revival does not yet translate into widespread relief.

• Poverty rates increased during the reform shock.

• Many jobs remain informal and poorly paid.

• Social protection programs reached only a fraction of those in need.

• Food inflation remains stubborn due to insecurity in farming areas.

• Wage growth lags behind price growth.

For millions, recovery still feels distant.

5. So, Revival or Detention?

Nigeria is not in economic detention, which would imply irreversible decline. Instead, it is undergoing painful economic recalibration. The reforms have begun stabilizing macroeconomic fundamentals. Growth is recovering, inflation is moderating, fiscal balance is improving, and infrastructure momentum is expanding.

However, revival will only be sustained if the government:

✔ strengthens social safety nets
✔ enhances food security through improved rural security
✔ supports SMEs and manufacturing
✔ maintains policy consistency
✔ deepens anti-corruption efforts
✔ ensures inclusive growth

Countries like Indonesia and India experienced similar reform-induced shocks, followed by sustained growth when reforms were maintained and social protections strengthened.

Conclusion

Nigeria’s economy is in recovery, but not yet healed. The worst of the shock appears to be over, but the benefits must reach ordinary citizens. With transparency, discipline, and inclusive policies, Nigeria can sustain growth and realistically target higher expansion rates by 2027.

Revival is underway, but it must be managed with compassion, competence, and a commitment to social justice.